My last page on this subject. Given Jackson's rewrites so far, I will hereby try and second-guess his second and third movie. I'm trying not to be tempted away from this into spoofing, even though much of what has already happened seems more like a spoof than anything. I honestly hope to predict at least some of the plot turns and scenes accurately. If I nail a couple, you will all know I am a genius.
The formula to date seems to be: get the characters to where they're supposed to wind up at critical moments (which I'm pretty sure means either Jackson's favorite moments or those he feels the fans would riot without) by the speediest route, while touching on as many cryptically mimed references to the text as possible. Action is to be of the grade-K-swash-and-buckle variety, and plenty of it, particularly if it involves cool special effects. Exposition is probably pretty well wrapped up at this point. So here goes...
It's hard to guess whether the movie will open with Aragorn, Legolas and Gimli, or with Frodo and Sam. I do predict that the two sides of the adventure will be intercut, rather than split. (And not unreasonably so, by the way.) Both parties will begin on the road, since the action at the top of The Two Towers has been moved to the end of the first movie. And travel by itself will seem boring to Jackson. Ooh! That's it. The movie will open with Merry and Pippin, in the clutches of the orcs. Ugluk and Grishnakh will not appear, and in fact the troop carrying the hobbits will be entirely composed of Isengarders. The overwrought music will kick in immediately and will not cease until the ushers clear the last of the audience out so they can sweep up the popcorn. The Uruk-Hai will travel for a matter of fifteen seconds, reaching a plainland, before night falls and the the Rohirrim appear out of nowhere. Battle commences, and after a moment of tense eye contact, Merry and Pippin will scoot for the forest.
In a five-second montage, the threesome chasing them will be shown jogging across three different landscapes. Suddenly, they will be surrounded by Eomer and his men. Challenged by Eomer, Aragorn will proudly explain that they are chasing orcs, and that Eomer had better aid him or thwart him, and choose quickly. Eomer will say they look like they came from Galadriel, and Gimli will answer: you don't like her? Yaaaaaa! and raise his axe over his head. But Aragorn will forestall him with a hand, saying No, Gimli! in an urgent voice, and turn back to Eomer saying that everyone needs to stick together now. Eomer will assent, impressed, and tell them to look for the smoking pile of orcs off thataway, and that he didn't see any dwarves or children.
Meanwhile, Frodo and Sam scuttle over one lowish hill without any travel montage, perhaps pausing briefly to be tormented by the Ring and the presence of the Eye in the east, and will make it over the drop at the end with the aid of a rope that Sam quickly explains was given to him by the elves. It will fall to the bottom at a tug of his hand, but rather than discuss it, they will both look briefly astounded. Resting at the bottom, they will see Gollum above them, and will tackle him in a fairly faithful scene. Frodo will make an impulsive decision, after hearing Ian McKellen's voice repeating the lines from his earlier exposition, that Gollum might be useful. Sam looks discontented. At no time is the name Smeagol mentioned, and never will any reference be made to the fact that he is actually a hobbit himself. Much time, throughout, will be spent looking at Gollum and listening to him talk. Much fun as it would be, though, to hear the Ring whispering Gollum, Gollum at him, it will never happen, no matter how plainly he is obsessed with it.
Merry and Pippin walk through the woods and sit down in a clearing on a hill, only to be immediately hauled up and dangled in the air by Treebeard. He, like all the other Ents, will be lushly animated but stupid-looking, with leafy branches sticking off him at random. Mery and Pippin will tell him (though they have no reason to know) that they were captured by forces of Saruman, and Treebeard will bark, "Saruman! He's been chopping down all my trees! I love trees. It's time to do something about him. You'd better come with me." He will ferry them of to Entmoot, where the Ents will either be gathered already or just now arriving, summoned en route. Quickbeam will be introduced and will take them aside; a quick cut to a shot of them sitting around bored, and then Treebeard will reappear with a battalion of hasty-assed Ents, bent on annihilation. The hobbits will look enthusiastic, perhaps high-fiving.
Meanwhile, Aragorn and cohorts survey the scene of battle, and worriedly pronounce that they see no evidence of the hobbits. Aragorn slips offscreen while Legolas and Gimli look at one another in horror and dejection; then he calls no, wait, over here! Cut to Aragorn, pointing at some obvious barefoot tracks, possibly in mud. "They got away! They're in there," he'll say, pointing to the ominous woods. Then, as night is falling, Gandalf will appear, in a relatively faithful scene but without horses. Perhaps Gimli will say something like "Saruman! Yaaaaa!" Gandalf will begin by sounding menacing, but then relent and smile and stand up straight and be Sir Ian. Everyone will be very happy. Gandalf will offer a quick recap of his fight with the Balrog, abbreviated but using several direct quotes from the text. Nothing about Gwaihir or Galadriel. Flashback scenes of the combat and some trippy beyond-death experiences will probably play while he tells this story. Told about the hobbits, Gandalf will say, don't worry about them, they're with Treebeard. He's an Ent. Legolas: so it's true, what they say about the Ents, that they're huge tree-men who live off in the woods and live just about forever and are slow to anger but fearsome once roused and have cool animation? Gandalf: yup, that's them. You'll see them soon, but first we must go to King Theoden of Rohan!
Cut back to the Hobbits, arriving at Isengard with the Ents, watching the troops pouring out of it (with some close-ups of Saruman giving his boys some evil exhortations), and then watching the Ents kick the crap out of the place. This will be very faithful and gorgeously animated. Saruman, though, will probably work some highly athletic mojo to escape from Quickbeam, possibly smacking him.
Finally Treebeard will call the Ents off and look frustrated. Suddenly inspired, Merry will suggest diverting the river, and the Ents will hurry gleefully away, and soon the river will burst the wall and drown Isengard. Close-up of Saruman's horrified face looking down.
Gollum leads Frodo and Sam through the marshes for a few seconds. Frodo is showing no particular sign of weariness, but he trips and falls into a pool, and sees the horrible dead face in it, which is followed by a montage of the hobbits seeing horrible dead faces in every direction. Gollum cackles, gives some directly quoted material about how there was a big battle here. Frodo, with wide eyes, says oh, that's right! This was the plain of Dagorlad. Gross. Let's get out of here. And Gollum will say no problem, here we are at the gate of Mordor! Over his shoulder, the fens end abruptly, and we will pan slowly over the Morannon, which will look properly awesome. "We'll never get through that," says Sam. "We have to," says Frodo. "No! I know another way," says Gollum evilly, and they look at him with apprehension. Cut to overhead shot of them following him south through a dry and pockmarked landscape under the eastern mountains.
Night falls, and Sam overhears Gollum's debate with himself, which is interrupted by Frodo's own waking, just as Sam is beginning to draw his sword. Fighting is averted, and off they go again.
At Meduseld, our heroes are greeted outside the great hall by Eomer, the only person we've met in Rohan. They are soon joined by Eowyn, who flirts shamelessly with Aragorn. Aragorn has a Liv Tyler flashback to remind the audience he has a girlfriend and grimly keeps his peace. Inside, Wormtongue delivers calls Gandalf "Stormcrow" without explaining it and delivers two directly quoted lines before Gandalf zaps him. Theoden says nearly nothing until he is brought outside to stand up straight and be grateful. Then he smiles, casts Wormtongue out, and gives a call to arms. The matter of Eomer's bad standing is skipped. Gandalf (or hell, maybe Legolas) supplies our next bit of exposition: to Helm's Deep! Except that Gandalf himself rides away to Isengard, where he surprises the hobbits, and demands to know where Treebeard is. Cut to the forces of Rohan arriving at Helm's Deep, which of course looks cool, as night falls and the army of Isengard closes round.
Meanwhile, in Ithilien, the three travelers come to rest again. Gollum goes off looking for food, and the hobbits are accosted by Faramir's men. Faramir questions them briefly and asks about Gollum, but then someone rushes in to say the Haradrim are coming, the Haradrim are coming, and he snaps "Stay here!" and runs off to fight.
The Uruk-Hai attack. Loads of numbskulled fighting and physically impossible maneuvers, mostly by Legolas. The contest between Legolas and Gimli is paid much attention and uses quotes from the book. The following improbable events will occur:
Gimli will escape, alone, into the caves of Aglarond, which will occasion much harp music. This will be an opportunity to generate tourist interest in whatever the prettiest cave system is in New Zealand. Meanwhile, Helm's Deep is overrun, the Uruk-Hai are inside the wall, and all is nearly lost, when the trees arrive and save the day, possibly summoned by Liv Tyler. Victorious, the heroes discuss their experience briefly, whereupon Gandalf rides up and says it is time to go deal with Saruman.
Rejoining the hobbits at Isengard, Gimli delivers a quoted line or two about the suffering he went through looking for them, even though this will make no obvious sense to the movie audience. Theoden says something nice to Merry, who is visibly smitten. The rest of the reunion is skipped as all parties proceed into Isengard.
Battle with wickedly animated oliphaunts commences in Ithilien, and Sam says something like "Bilbo used to tell me about oliphaunts!" The slain Southron falls to the ground in front of him, and he wonders out loud where the man's family is. But then battle is over, and the hobbits are led away to Henneth Annun. Close up on Gollum, sputtering to himself behind a tree.
They pass with silly music through the waterfall, and Faramir questions the hobbits, revealing that he is Boromir's brother. He is probably blond. He tells of his vision of Boromir's body in the boat, which plays over the screen as he describes it, and though Frodo is merely wide-eyed as usual, Faramir detects mixed feelings in him and asks whether Boromir was not dear to him. Sam says "Begging your pardon, but it was always clear what he wanted--he wanted the Enemy's Ring!" Everyone goes silent, and Faramir looks grim. Using quotes from the book, he says that Boromir was tested too sorely, but that he will not fail. They must be on their way. In front of all his men, Faramir blesses their mission to carry the Ring into Mordor, though he does caution them not to go to Minas Morgul. Suddenly, men enter carrying Gollum in a net, and explain that they found him outside. The three are taken outside and pointed down the road. Off they go.
On the steps of Orthanc, Saruman greets them at once. His voice is the same forbidding, sepulchral monotone as before, except that once in a while when he wants to put a Jedi Mind Trick on somebody it is accompanied by some special effects, maybe a swirling visual ripple plus a hint of reverb. After an initial demonstration of this ablity, he ignores Theoden (as does everyone) and speaks only to Gandalf, who laughs at him and tells him to surrender. They exchange a few rounds of I-point-my-staff-and-you-go-flying, except that now Gandalf beats Saruman easily and contemptuously, and says "Saruman, your staff is broken," while Saruman is pinned to the wall.
Wormtongue tosses the Palantir out the window, and it rolls gently down the steps one at a time, toonk toonk toonk, to be picked up by Pippin who has a bluish light on his face and looks entranced before having a fairly faithfully rendered exchange with Gandalf. The company rides off toward Meduseld (or actually, in any old direction, since they won't explain), and make camp for the night.
Frodo and Sam and Gollum reach the crossroads as the sun sets, and the beheaded king with his flower crown is in the background, unnoticed. As night falls they come down into a scary-looking vale, possibly including the sickly luminous plants, and look up to behold Minas Morgul. After taking cover to watch the Witch-King lead his army out below, and withstanding the whispery Frodo Frodo command of the Ring, they will climb up one quick and easy staircase to the tunnels of Shelob. Here Gollum will vanish suddenly, and in a matter of seconds, they will be faced with a spectacularly animated Shelob. She will bite Frodo while Gollum jumps on Sam, who will struggle for far too long, watching desperately as Frodo is overcome. Then Sam will klonk Gollum on the head with something and go to face Shelob, and after a lot of chasing and flailing finally kill her.
Seeing that Frodo is dead, Sam will take his stuff and tearfully leave, only to shrink against the rock face when orcs approach.
Pippin lies awake, and comments to Merry that he wonders what that rock is all about. Merry drowsily tells him to go to sleep. Instead he wakes up, steals the Palantir from Gandalf, and is confronted by the speaking, flaming Eye of Sauron, which quotes verbatim from the book. Gandalf reclaims the stone and upbraids him, and turns it over to Aragorn. Then the Nazgul will pass overhead, and Gandalf will have to quickly explain that they can do that, since it will have been the first time the audience sees any such thing. He leaves with Pippin and arrives almost immediately in Minas Tirith, that same view we saw in the first movie.
Meanwhile, Liv Tyler arrives unescorted at the camp of the Rohirrim, taking the blace of her brothers and all the rangers. She presents Aragorn with Anduril, which she has renamed for him. Aragorn, Legolas, Gimli and Liv scoot for the Paths of the Dead at her suggestion, while everybody else mounts up to head for Gondor without stopping back at home. In a brief exchange, Theoden tells Merry not to go, but then Eowyn (acting secretive but dispensing with the name Dernhelm) appears immediately afterward to take him anyway.
Sam, not wearing the Ring, follows a troop of orcs, and soon learns that Frodo is not dead. The gates go boom and clang, and Sam is stuck outside, and that's it. I believe Jackson will go through with ending this part of the story in the right place because he will feel the precedent of The Empire Strikes Back makes it okay, as a financial investment, to have a downer ending on the second movie of your trilogy.
The third movie begins with Sam, sneaking around an orc fortress, climbing over walls and ferreting his way upstairs without ever seeing the watchers. At some wholly incongruous moment the Ring whispers at him and we see a brief vision of Samwise the Strong in action, but he shakes his head and makes a face and continues. All well and good. He hears fighting orcs above and waits til one kills the other; then he does in the first himself and goes up to get Frodo. Frodo, looking miserable but fully clothed and healthy, gets up, reclaims the Ring in an uncomfortable moment of suspicion (but not difficult for Sam) and they leave.
At Minas Tirith, Gandalf and Pippin proceed directly from the outermost gate to an audience with Denethor, who will be a terrible disappointment. Denethor is actually a very subtle character, both wise and intemperate, and he is listening to everything very carefully, and generally understanding it all. He hates Gandalf's guts, but he knows full well that they're basically on the same side. Five will get you ten that Peter Jackson's Denethor, though, will be a glowering nincompoop who thinks very highly of himself and can't take a hint. He will ignore Gandalf whenever possible, and most of his statements on world politics will be confined to "We are all going to die. But I don't need you." Pippin will sign on to service with him for no apparent reason, and meet Beregond and Bergil within fifteen seconds, never to see them again. He will look bewildered by the city the whole time he's there.
Cut to Aragorn, Liv and company, taking a breather at the doorway of the Paths of the dead to discuss their (anemic) history. "It's the only way," Aragorn will say firmly without saying why. In they go, and animated ghosts will surround them, and Gimli will behave like a miserable idiot instead of just an idiot.
This is making me depressed. Let me finish up quickly: Frodo and Sam will go a short way, get drafted, escape without a crossroad, and go another short way to the slopes of Orodruin. At the very end Frodo will probably begin to look weary, probably very suddenly. The armies show up at Minas Tirith, Faramir makes it through as part of a small band of men on foot, he immediately falls ill and Denethor tries to burn him, and the assault begins and has the gates down inside of two minutes. Down come the Rohirrim, who sweep the field and are immediately routed, and then the end of the Witch-King is recounted fairly faithfully; then the boats show up with Aragorn etc., who rout everybody again, and Gandalf saves Faramir and then Aragorn heals people and Gimli probably says yaaaa again. Quickly everyone sets out to assail the Morannon, which they reach as quickly as though it were across the street, and Frodo and Sam climb the mountain and yell at Gollum. The Mouth of Sauron appears without being named, and displays some token other than any of Frodo's valuable gear, which I'm guessing will never have been lost. Maybe he just says, see you got a hobbit there, they suck, we caught one of 'em, and that's that. Or maybe--most likely--he just doesn't show up at all, and battle commences as soon as the Gondor folks hit the gates. At the lip of a fiery pit in Orodruin, Frodo hesitates for ages to manufacture some more suspense, then puts the Ring on. Nice shot of the orcs and trolls losing their sense of purpose, a panicky Eye of Sauron with an infuriated rowr? noise like Scooby-Doo, and shots of the airborne Nazgul getting a lot closer to the mountain than it seems they should be able to. The climax will be very faithful, and perhaps even now Gandalf will not bother to explain Gwaihir. Then everybody will return to Minas Tirith the same day, Aragorn's ascension to the throne will be mostly conveyed by swelling music and shots of smiling people, Eowyn is shown arm in arm with Faramir without further ado, skip the tree, skip the embassy from Rivendell and Lothlorien, and the hobbits are on their way home again. Quick scene of a beggarly Saruman, end with his evil foreshadowing smile, stop by Rivendell to drop off Gandalf and wave at Bilbo, and the hobbits are home. Things look wrong, so they beat up some Big Men, throw them out of the place, skipping any serious battle or effort at rabblerousing, and report to Bag End to tell Saruman to beat it. Maybe Wormtongue isn't even with him, and the hobbits just shoot Saruman when he tries to stab Frodo. Or else Saruman picks Frodo up and pins him against a tree, but Merry and Pippin upend a cartload of pumpkins behind him, tripping him up, and Sam stabs him. The next day, almost the entire cast arrives: Gandalf, Agent Smith, Galadriel, Bilbo, Legolas and Gimli. They ride with Frodo and Sam to the Grey Havens, and everybody but Sam takes ship: Sam stands there looking mournful as the music swells, and then the ship is arriving in Valinor, and thousands of hippie-chick elves with long platinum hair stand on the shore in their tennis outfits, waving hello. Cut to a close-up of Sauron's inexplicable helmet and an intolerable blare of horns in a dramatic chord. Roll credits.
Failing all that, of course, Jackson could just acknowledge that preposterous rewrites of Tolkien are a tradition well older than any work of his, and draw some additional material here. Or here, or here.